In late February the Ministry of Education released the Teacher Supply and Demand Planning Projection Report with updated projections of teacher numbers through to 2028. While these figures show a national surplus for primary schools of 530 teachers in 2026 growing to a surplus of 1,350 by 2028; secondary schools will have a national shortfall of around minus 710 teachers in 2026, reducing to minus 190 by 2028.
This year, a more nuanced view of the Auckland region, with projections now split into Auckland Central, South and North has identified a variable supply picture across the region. For 2026 the Auckland projections span from a surplus of 30 high school teachers in Auckland Central and East to a shortfall of 140 teachers in Auckland North and West.
Principal of Western Springs College in Auckland Central, Ivan Davis, says “We’re pretty lucky in central Auckland in that it’s an attractive place to come and we have not experienced difficulties in attracting and more importantly retaining staff.” Ivan goes on to say that though Western Springs College is fully staffed, the school is increasingly filling positions with teachers who are not trained in New Zealand. “We have lower than average international teacher recruitment, but it’s certainly a trend that other schools will acknowledge. It will be different for each school and different parts of Auckland and the country. Some places in New Zealand are harder to staff than others.”
To project how many teachers are needed over 3 years, the report considers the impact of many variables. These include roll growth, Ministry-funded initiatives, newly trained teachers entering the sector, recruitment from overseas and the number of people returning to the profession.
While many of the supply projections at a national and regional level are showing improvements, the report acknowledges the national position does not always reflect the supply challenges some individual schools and communities experience.
Ivan Davis says: “Immigration of course is always the wild card that is difficult to predict and is one of the things putting pressure on school rolls, especially in Auckland.” Ivan points out that as Minister of Immigration, Erica Stanford is well placed to address the challenge of aiding teaching staff from overseas into our schools. Recent initiatives from the Ministry of Education include changes to immigration settings, the Overseas Relocation Grant to support overseas teachers moving to New Zealand and the Overseas Finder Fee for schools to help meet recruitment costs.
According to the report, we have more qualified teachers in the system (permanent, part-time and relief staff) than we have had in the last 20 years and preliminary enrolments in teacher training for primary and secondary have increased and are promising.
Demand for teachers is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years at around 68,900 across the schooling sector (approximately 38,300 primary and 30,600 secondary teachers).
An additional 26,740 teachers are expected to enter the system over the 3-year projection: 14,290 primary and 12,450 secondary teachers.
Ministry of Education supply initiatives are having a positive impact – Ministry funded initiatives are expected to add 4,140 teachers (1,740 primary and 2,400 secondary teachers) to the system (based on a medium supply projection) over the next 3 years.
By 2028, the supply projections are expected to shift to a surplus of 1,350 primary teachers, while an additional 190 secondary teachers will still be required.
National supply projections for 2026
An additional 8,940 teachers (4,750 primary and 4,190 secondary teachers) are expected to enter the system in 2026:
Returning teachers are projected to increase by 2,450 primary and 2,310 secondary teachers.
New domestically trained teachers are projected to increase by 1,330 primary and 780 secondary teachers.
New overseas teachers are projected to increase by 390 primary and 300 secondary teachers.
Ministry-funded supply initiatives are projected to increase supply by 580 primary and 800 secondary teachers.
Areas with the greatest projected shortages and surpluses
Greatest projected shortages by sector, as a proportion of regional demand:
Taranaki (-5%) Northland (-4.5%) and Bay of Plenty (-3.7%) are facing the biggest challenges in the primary sector.
Auckland South and Southwest (-6.3%) Otago (-6.2%) and Auckland North and Northwest (-4.2%) are facing the biggest challenges in the secondary sector.
Greatest projected surpluses by sector, as a proportion of regional demand:
Canterbury (+9.4%), Auckland Central (+8.4%) and Otago (+2.1%) are projecting surpluses in the primary sector.
Auckland Central (+0.8%) and Waikato (+0.2%) are projecting surpluses in the secondary sector.
Ongoing initiatives
To ease teacher supply shortages, there are ongoing initiatives to attract and support people to enter the teaching profession. These include:
In 2026, the Ministry launched Go Rural, a fund providing financial support for up to 123 student teachers to take up placements as part of their training in rural and isolated schools.
Around 460 scholarships to train as a teacher are awarded each year. Scholarships are prioritised for those wanting to teach in difficult to recruit subjects: STEM and te reo Māori and are typically fully subscribed.
In 2025, we launched its Teacher Bonding Scheme, providing additional financial incentive for 185 teachers to take up new roles in eligible priority staffing schools.
Investment in Budget 2024 established the School Onsite Training Programme (SOTP) programme to train classroom-ready teachers for those not enrolling in traditional ITE programmes and additional investment in Budget 2025 expanded the programme by 530 places to 1,861 over 4 years.
The Ministry is providing up to 65 funding awards every 2 years supporting both kura and those on a Limited Authority to Teach to train to be a Kaiako as part of the 2-year Kaupapa Māori | Māori Medium Employment-based Initial Teacher Education (EBITE) Programme Funding Award.
